On four ontological accounts, the census of North Eastern province has never been nearly accurate and will never be accurate;
first, census agents often conduct counts in major cities and mid-sized villages. Great majority of Somali population is pastoral compared to sedentary. On this basis, only a small portion of the population could be reached by census enumerators.
Second, head counting human in the Somali norm is not embraced kindly and implies an attempt heralding sinister intention.
Third, historical injustices, marginalization and perpetual discrimination feeds suspicion and naturally limits census process.
Fourth, Oparanya reported the ratio of men is twice or thrice to women. To be very kind to him, perhaps he read the ratio in reverse.
The poncy textbook response that "according to natural population patterns, the growth in NEP is unusual" as espoused by Dr. Ikamari and Oparanya is disservice to the census process. A dismissive one line item is insufficient to address an entire process Kenyans have been waiting for over a year. Instead, it is prudent to take a more in depth analysis of the "dramatic" population shift, if indeed that is the case.
In the last decade, there has been sedentarization of pastoral communities spawning settlements around Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and other small towns. El-Nino rains, La-Nina and subsequent draughts left widespread bankruptcy in livestock. Hundreds of thousands camel, cattle, goat and sheep perished leaving legions of pastoral communities destitute. These communities were left with no option but sedentary lifestyle.
The upsurge in population around existing towns and villages was not captured by the census-1999 as the settlements were gradual throughout the last decade. That means the enumerators were able to reach more of the population this time than they were able to do in the past.
Clearly, this has contributed to the census of respective towns but not anything near 140% as reported. The overall number recently quoted by the Interim Electoral Commission of Kenya (IIECK) show stark similarity to the census 2009 dismissed by the planning ministry.
According to the Interim Independent Electoral Commission the region has 232,099 registered voters which represent 10 per cent of the total population. This numbers extrapolated to 100th percentile indicate the regions’ population is around 2.3 million, congruent to the result garbaged by the planning minister.
The argument by some pundits that high birth rate has contributed to the puzzling numbers is also defunct. Nothing indicates an upward shift in birth rate between the last few decades as claimed by the government ill-luminaries except during the HIV/AIDS era.
At least theoretically, it is arguable that birth rate may have been comparatively low in the last two decades due to awareness and education around HIV/AIDS in the region. Contraception and fertility enhancing practices are too scanty to waver birth rate. Rationally, population growth in NEP communities must assume linear trajectory barring natural or artificially designed disaster.
The recent count ostensibly touted as "census-2009" and sarcastically referring to Northern Kenya's population as bloated is characteristic of inept and arrogant leadership. A recount will deliver population count that will dampen the spirit and will of those who thrive in ethnic hierarchy. Afterall,Kenyas' 40 plus ethinic groups and 40 million citizens are entitled to equal rights and resources. Subjugation based on ethnic supremacy is not the game to play after the new constitution.
